To keep global warming to well below 2°C, there is a set ‘budget’ of emissions which we can still use up – and we are burning through it at top speed, as the Climate Clock impressively demonstrates. One approach here would be to divide this carbon budget equally among all industries and require equal rates of reduction across the board. In practice, assigning the same reduction targets to aviation as we do to software development seems unrealistic.
Organisations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) have published mitigation scenarios, such as the ‘Beyond 2 Degrees Scenario’ (B2DS), which aims at limiting global warming to max. 1.75°C compared to pre-industrial times. These scenarios divide the remaining emission budget among sectors, considering their intrinsic differences in emission intensity and cost-optimised capacity to reduce it.
Our XDC Model draws on these mitigation scenarios to map out the “Economic Emission Intensity” (EEI) pathway that each sector needs to follow, in order to contribute its share to achieving the Paris Goal (read more about the calculation process here). This pathway is calculated for the sector median, representing a ‘typical’ company within the sector. Next, the XDC Model translates the EEI pathway into °C – showing the temperature trajectory and, most importantly, the target temperature this ‘typical’ company will arrive at in 2050 if it follows the reduction pathway: the Target XDC.